The Probability of Life
The Fermi Paradox as we discussed earlier help us understand why our observations of the universe do not match the experimental ideas of how much life there should be in the universe. But what exactly are the odds of there being life out there in the universe? We can answer this question by using the Drake equation, pioneered by Frank Drake, the Drake equation uses several factors that are seen on Earth to find the probability of life throughout the galaxy and even the wider universe.
The Drake Equation breaks up the probability of life into the aspects that would potentially lead to the development of life. For example the number of planets, formation of water, and aspects that would lead to civilization. The Drake Equation seductively finds the probability of life throughout the galaxy, more specifically the probability of there being intelligent life throughout the galaxy. The Drake Equation starts off vague with the probability of there being suitable stars that can host planets and the chances that the planets in those systems can have the ability to harbor life. This can be through metrics such as the presence of water, oxygen, and natural materials essential for the development of life.
After this, the Drake Equation takes into account the probability that life even evolves in these conditions and the probability of whether this life would become intelligent and obtain the ability of long-distance communication. This fact is key to the Drake Equation as we would only know the information preceding radio-transmitting life if they have the ability to transmit information across the cosmos. This is a major limiter of the Drake Equation as we wouldn’t know the probability of cellular life or less intelligent forms of life if they never get to the point that we are at at the moment.
For example, if we wanted to know if Dinosaurs existed on other planets we would need humans to evolve after to tell us that they existed. This is the biggest barrier for finding the probability of life and cannot be known until we bump into other intelligent forms of life.
The Drake Equation can be approximated with our present-day knowledge. But even with this knowledge the Drake Equation seems to be off by quite a bit, especially since there is no sign of life in our galaxy. But the Drake Equation is a fun thought experiment about the probability of life in our universe.
